Jun
23RP to enter recession this year, World Bank says
Filed Under (Coffee Break) by Cool VER on 23-06-2009
The Philippines is expected to enter “outright recession” this year, the World Bank (WB) said in its latest report, citing heavy trade relations with slowing economies of the United States and Europe.
Before experiencing a 2.4 percent and 4.5 percent expansion by 2010 and 2011 respectively, the Philippine economy would shrink by half percent this year, the Washington-based multilateral lender said.
The recession was blamed on falling exports and sluggish consumer spending. Demand for consumer goods comprise about 70 to 80 percent of the economy.
Unemployment is on the rise and poverty is set to increase in developing economies. – World Bank Its Philippine forecast is only slightly better compared to similar projections issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) early this month. The IMF, which is also based in the US capital, predicted that the economy may contract by one percent this year.
In its latest Global Finance Development report, the World Bank said the Philippines will suffer a 0.5-percent contraction, a grim scenario compared to the adjusted 0.8 percent to 1.8 percent GDP growth economic managers were aiming for this year.
It was also a marked slowdown from the 0.4-percent growth reported for the first three months of 2009.
Respective gross domestic products (GDP) of Asia-Pacific economies are seen to increase by late this year and continue into 2010, the World Bank said in its latest Global Development Finance report.
But the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand were considered as exceptions.
“Recovery is expected to be relatively gradual, reflecting substantial fiscal stimulus in China combined with a gradual recovery of demand for the region’s exports among high-income countries,” the WB said, adding that economic output in the region is expected to reach 6.6 percent in 2010 and 7.8 percent in 2011.
When the credit crisis struck the US and Europe, most regional economies – including the Philippines – eased their respective monetary policies, cut reserve requirements, and in some cases, even providing direct injections into the banking system.
[The Philippine economy's] resilience will beat recession. – Rolando Tungpalan, NEDA deputy director generalThe moves make credit more available in the system, encouraging banks to lend and businesses to borrow, strategies seen to further stimulate their respective economies.
Although middle-income nations have introduced discretionary fiscal stimulus packages, low-income countries like the Philippines – which have small capabilities to spend – have attempted to boost external assistance, enlarging room for more outlays.
Moreover, lower tax rates and spending hikes, combined with lower revenues, weaker growth, and falling commodity costs, have only widened the fiscal deficit throughout the region.
“The packages in China and the Philippines incorporate measures to be financed by both the public and private sectors,” the WB said.
For the January to April period, Manila has reported that exports slumped by 36.4 percent while personal consumption in the first quarter was at only 0.8 percent, despite the 2.98-percent rise in remittances from overseas Filipinos, a traditional source of Filipino families’ disposable income.
“Economic activity in high-income and developing countries alike fell abruptly in the final quarter of 2008 and in the 1st quarter of 2009. Unemployment is on the rise and poverty is set to increase in developing economies…,” WB added.
The crisis has prompted households to cut back on spending, the IMF said.
“Moreover, while consumer demand has and will recover, savings rates are unlikely to return to earlier low levels, because households will continue to save to restore a proportion of the financial wealth destroyed during the crisis,” said the report.
Manila was quick to say that the Philippines would remain resilient this year.
“I’d rather believe that resilience will beat recession,” said deputy director general Rolando Tungpalan of the National Economic and Development Authority.
Government expenditures failed to boost growth in the first quarter because agencies were unable to spend their allotments since the country’s budget was only approved in March, he said.
Agencies needed to spend 60 percent of their infrastructure and social services budget in the first half of the year as a way to stimulate the domestic economy.
For the third quarter, agencies are mandated to spend the remaining 40 percent of their capital outlay instead of spreading them out over the second half of the year, Tungpalan added. With Cheryl M. Arcibal, GMANews.TV







Tacloban, PHILIPPINES